Stat attack - Pompey underperforming

Before you read this i want you to know that sometimes I get bored at my job. Really bored. Right...

Stats back it up – Pompey are underperforming...

Before the game against ‘boro Ferguson made a claim that a number of managers have made before him - Pompey's squad is as strong as any in the league. I think this is the core argument of the Cotterill out campaign, the squad is good and experienced and is much better than current results suggest. When I looked at the team sheets on Tue night it is difficult to argue that Pompey had a weaker team. If you have faith in football managers, scouts, general analysis there is a basic hypothesis that the best players play in the premier league - so I had a look at the stats. Pompey's starting 11 had 464 starting premier league appearance between them:

Ashdown 38

Ward 1

Halford 22

TBH 133

Lawrence 51

Mullins 123

Riise 5

Benjani 90

Of course there are a lot other components that feed into whether or not a team is succesful other than if their players have been given a chance in the Premier leage. But the experience of players at the highest level is as good as any other relatively arbitary measure of the strength of a squad.

I did a comparison with the other championship teams for the starting 11s for the last round of games.  As i had already done the research I also looked at clubs relative positions compared to where there premier league experience indicates they should be:

			Division by total premier league appearance of last starting 11			Current table		Team over / under performance
	1		WHU	1253		Scum		Derby	+19
	2		Brum	883		Boro		Scum	+19
	3		Ipswich	792		Derby		Peterborough	+16
	4		Bristol C	579		WHU		Middlesboro	+12
	5		Leicester	508		Brighton		Palace	+8
	6		Blackpool	480		Cardiff		Leeds	+7
	7		Pompey	460		Hull		Brighton	+7
	8		Forest	347		Peterborough		Cardiff	+7
	9		Donny	309		Palace		Reading	+5
	10		Watford	168		Blackpool		Hull	+4
	11		Hull	137		Leicester		Milwall	+1
	12		Brighton	126		Ipswich		Barnsley	-2
	13		Cardiff	121		Leeds		Coventry	-3
	14		Middleboro	118		Reading		Burnley	-3
	15		Burnley	107		Watford		WHU	-3
	16		Barnsley	49		Burnley		Blackpool	-4
	17		Palace	48		Pompey		Watford	-5
	18		Coventry	37		Barnsley		Leicester	-6
	19		Reading	35		Birmingham		Ipswich	-9
	20		Leeds	35		Notts f		Pompey	-10
	21		Scum	28		Coventry		Notts f	-12
	22		Derby	11		Millwall		Doncaster	-13
	23		Milwall	8		Bristol		Birmingham	-17
	24		Peterborough	0		Doncaster		Bristol	-19

What does this tell us? Well it tells us that Pompey are not doing as well as they should be (with the huge caveat of this of course not being the only indication of how a team should be doing).  The teams who are doing even worse than Pompey include Brisol City and Doncaster whose Premier league experience is horribly skewed by their goalkeepers. Without David James Bristol City have just 8 premier league games experience, which would put them about where they should be in the league, similarly without Neil Sullivan’s 246 games in the premier league Doncaster would have 63 premier league games experience and would be above Pompey in the team under performance league, Brum have two games in hand.

Anyway before i get tied up in stats I shall conclude I still feel Cotteril should be given more time, i felt they werent far off on Tuesday, although along with the rest of Fratton Park my patience is wearing thin. The next two home games are Barnsley and Doncaster, anything less than 4 points should surely see the end of Cotteril. The stats here also back up my opening sentiment – sometimes my day job is boring enough for me to consider spending my time doing this.

Pyschology of support

Tuesday night was strange. I thought Pompey played ok, in fact when Pompey went 2-1 down I was confident enough to put a cheeky fiver on us winning 4-2. There was a 15 mins period in the second half when we battered boro and my money should have been safe. But alas.

The team was let down especially by two poor performances from Ashdown and Ward. Cotterill is quite right to point out that teams win together and lose together. But i think the fans reaction to those players is very different. My pop pyschologist mind wonders if Pompey players have ever disassociated Ashdown from his history at the club. Instead of being rewarded for longevity of service he is under-appreciated because he wasnt good enough when James was at the club, he wasnt good enough when Asmir was at the club, so why is he good enough now? Ward however is given extra credit because of his place of birth, and I am all for that, fans love nothing more than a local boy, and one who works hard at that.

Either which way, both need to up their game to retain their places in the team.